A Methodology for Evaluating Component-Level Loss Predictions of the FEMA P-58 Seismic Performance Assessment Procedure

Gemma Cremen & Jack Baker

As performance-based earthquake engineering (FEMA P-58) becomes more widely adopted in design and risk analysis practice, it is important to understand the degree to which the calculations reflect reality. This paper proposes a methodology for evaluating P-58 component-level loss predictions across buildings subjected to given seismic events, which involves ranking P-58 loss predictions according to categorical component damage information recorded on post-earthquake damage surveys. The methodology explicitly incorporates uncertainties in predictions and utilizes a ground shaking benchmark to determine whether P-58 analyses provide more insight into damage than variations in ground shaking between buildings. Two example applications of the methodology are provided, involving non-structural component data from the 2011 Mw 6.1 Christchurch Earthquake, for which there is negligible variation in shaking between buildings, and the 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge Earthquake, for which there is notable variation in shaking between buildings. We find that P-58 non-structural component-level loss predictions perform better overall than the ground shaking benchmark in both cases. The methodology offers an understanding of how P-58 component-level loss predictions align with actual observed damage.

Cremen, G., and Baker, J. W. (2019). “A Methodology for Benchmarking Loss Predictions of the FEMA P-58 Seismic Performance Assessment Procedure.” Earthquake Spectra, 35(1), 193–210. (10.1193/031618EQS061M)