Project Summary

Many seismic loss problems (such as damage of distributed infrastructure and losses to portfolios of structures) are dependent upon the regional distribution of ground motion intensity, rather than intensity at only a single site. This work extends traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (which considers distributions of future event magnitudes, distances, attenuation variability, etc.), to consider spatial distribution of intensity. Spatial correlations of this intensity have been developed empirically based on data from well-recorded past earthquakes. This can then be used in forward simulations of ground motion intensity in future earthquakes. When implemented in a Monte Carlo simulation, one may obtain millions of simulations of intensity from future events, so methods have been developed to select a greatly reduced number of representative events from a large number of simulations. This will facilitate computationally-intensive risk analyses of distributed infrastructure systems such as transportation networks. Models resulting from this work have been utilized by insurance and reinsurance companies, and in more general efforts such as the Global Earthquake Model.

Contributors

Mahalia Miller

Nirmal Jayaram

Prof. Jack Baker

Partners

Paolo Bazzurro, AIR Worldwide

Jaesung Park, AIR Worldwide

Polsak Tothong, AIR Worldwide

Project Sponsors:

U.S. Geological Survey

National Science Foundation