Tracking Factors that Affect Wildfire Recovery

Peter Lee, Rodrigo Costa, Jack Baker

Wildfires have become one of the most prominent climate disasters in the American West and the world. Their impacts are exacerbated by increasing housing developments in the so-called wildland-urban interface (WUI). Although much attention has been given to the immediate aftermath and direct losses of these catastrophic events, efforts are just beginning to quantify the long-term trajectories of post-wildfire recovery. These trajectories are unique as wildfires commonly lead to mass outmigration compared to other natural disasters, prompting authorities to rethink conventional aid strategies.

This project explores the factors that influence the overall pace of housing recovery as well as the rate of households returning to their hometowns. For comparison and validation, we incorporate three test-beds of the City of Santa Rosa, greater Sonoma County, and the town of Paradise. By applying agent-based modeling to individual-level permit data, we seek to (1) better understand how households decide to return under complex funding situations, (2) study the shifts in demand that may slow down reconstruction, and (3) identify unmet needs in the recovery process to inform local and state-level housing agencies.